Join day by day information updates from CleanTechnica on e mail. Or comply with us on Google Information!
February noticed plugin EVs at 26.3% share in France, up from 23.8% share, yr on yr. Full electrical quantity grew 32% YoY, and plugin hybrid quantity grew 12%. February’s general auto quantity was 142,598 models, up 13% YoY, although nonetheless nicely beneath 2017–2019 norms (~190,000). The Peugeot e-208 was as soon as once more the most effective promoting full electrical car.
February noticed mixed plugin EVs at 26.3% share in France, consisting of 18.1% full battery electrics (BEVs), and 8.2% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). These evaluate with YoY figures of 23.8% mixed, with 15.5% BEV, and 8.3% PHEV.
PHEVs have been on a plateau for the previous 3 years, hovering near 9% (+/- 1%) of the market. BEVs have continued to develop slowly and steadily for years. 2019 noticed a full yr BEV share of 1.9%, adopted by 6.7% in 2020, 9.8% (2021), 13.3% (2022), and 16.8% final yr (2023). With some incentives nonetheless in place (albeit thinning), 2024 seems to be one other yr of BEV development, with 20% full yr BEV share being potential.
That is regular progress, however not quick sufficient to satisfy medium-term targets. At this charge of roughly 3.5% achieve in BEV share every year, it’ll take till the top of 2034 for BEVs to seize 50% of the French auto market. Contemplating that the aim is to get near 100% BEV gross sales by 2035, that is clearly insufficient.
The issue is that BEV pricing remains to be very costly for most individuals. Proper now, in France’s highest quantity auto segments, small and compact, just like the Peugeot 208, Fiat 500, and Opel Corsa, BEVs are priced far above combustion alternate options. The entry combustion Peugeot 208 is listed at 19,350€ whereas the entry e-208 is 34,100€ — that’s 14,750€ (57%) costlier.
Why is a BEV a lot costlier? The widespread expectation was that — as a result of manufacturing prices decline as new applied sciences mature — costs of BEVs ought to by now be not very totally different from combustion counterparts, and shifting in the direction of being cheaper than combustion, over time. These anticipated value declines have certainly occurred with the important thing new applied sciences of BEVs — most significantly batteries, and likewise motors and energy electronics.
Automotive LFP cells now value 44€/kWh to make for the big suppliers in China (CATL, BYD, and many others), and they’re working at very slim revenue margins, and competing with one another on pricing. Which means the 50 kWh battery packs of small BEVs like the most effective promoting Peugeot e-208 ought to value not rather more than 3,000€. Permitting a beneficiant 2,500€ for motor and energy electronics, and saving no less than 2,000€ from the absent ICE, emissions remedy, ancillaries, and transmission, the BEV value premium ought to solely be 3,500€ at most, on this class of auto. That is conservative. BEV producers in China are already competing head-on with ICE on worth, even in segments priced nicely underneath 20,000€, utilizing element provides that are internationally traded.
As I identified in my current Germany report “The [Dacia] Spring’s pack is ~27 kWh, a easy design with modest energy and no lively cooling, so ought to value underneath 1,600€. The motor and inverters are additionally modest energy (33 kW), so equally cheap. The Renault-Dongfeng badged “Fengshen EX1” model (identical automotive with the very same battery and motor) had a pre-sales-tax worth of underneath €6,000 in China.”
What’s the worth of the Dacia Spring in France? 18,400€… over thrice the worth. Even permitting a potential 2,000€ for airbags and security upgrades — after worldwide transport, 10% import tax, and 20% gross sales tax, that 6.000€ ought to translate to a French sale worth of nicely underneath 12,000€, not a worth of over 18,000€!
In brief, it seems like European automotive patrons are being screwed-over on BEV pricing, while the European automakers are making document income. Producers are apparently refusing to compete with one another on providing inexpensive BEVs (which factors to potential worth collusion), and are leaning on European politicians to close out international competitors, to allow them to keep their document income — by overcharging European shoppers for the BEVs they do provide.
If BEV costs had been maintaining tempo with the precise value reductions within the core applied sciences, BEVs would already be near parity with ICE pricing in most segments in France, simply as they’re in China. BEV share would even be maintaining with the pace of the transition seen in China, which — regardless of scoring behind France in BEV share in 2020 (6.3% vs 6.7%) — ended 2023 far forward (25% vs 16.8%).
Let me know within the feedback what you concentrate on this complete scenario of overpriced BEVs, document income for European producers, even while the pace of the transition is way beneath the place it must be.
To complete this part on a optimistic observe, February noticed diesel market share at a document low in France, at simply 7.2%, dropping from 11.7% YoY. Quantity was simply 10,221 models, from 14,717 models YoY.
Finest Promoting BEVs
The Peugeot e-208 was as soon as once more the most effective promoting BEV in France, for a second consecutive month, with 4,132 models delivered in February. In runner up place was the Fiat 500e, with 1,990 models, with the Tesla Mannequin Y simply behind, with 1,982 models.
The Citroen e-C4 noticed a superb soar in quantity, to 1,034 models, nicely forward of its current month-to-month common of some 330 models. This was sufficient to see the e-C4 climb to seventh, from fifteenth in January.
One other sturdy climber was the brand new Volvo EX30, which newest information suggests debuted in January, with 307 models, and climbed strongly to 770 models, and tenth spot, in February.
The EX30, which is at the moment made in China, will likely be excluded from France’s eco-bonus incentive scheme (see current dialogue) after March fifteenth, so is being delivered in a rush earlier than that date. We will anticipate its numbers to fall considerably after March. Volvo is planning to make the EX30 in Europe (most likely Belgium) from 2025, to beat these limitations.
Recall that a number of of the preferred BEV fashions will fall foul of the brand new eco-bonus guidelines after March fifteenth — basically, any mannequin which is made outdoors of Europe is excluded. Fashions affected embrace the Dacia Spring, Tesla Mannequin 3, Kia Niro, Kia EV6, BYD Atto 3, Volvo EX30, MG4 (plus all different MGs), Ford Mustang Mach-e, Fisker Ocean, Nissan Ariya, and Toyota BZ4X (amongst a number of others).
We will anticipate all these fashions to pull-forward deliveries forward of March fifteenth, and see a major drop in quantity from April onwards. Clearly it will imply that these BEVs nonetheless accessing the bonus will achieve in gross sales and rating, because the above well-liked fashions are hamstrung within the competitors. The water is considerably muddied by new pricing methods from lots of these dropping entry to the bonus. Let’s see how the mud settles in the direction of the top of Q2.
The brand new BMW iX2 made its French debut in February, with 99 models registered. The BYD Seal has additionally just lately debuted, with 38 preliminary models in January, and stepping as much as 202 models in February. Because the Seal is at the moment solely made in China , it gained’t see a lot quantity after March fifteenth, until BYD is able to regulate its pricing. A BYD European manufacturing facility is being deliberate.
Let’s now investigate cross-check the trailing 3 month rankings:
December information was sparse, so we will solely compile a dependable prime 12 rating. As ordinary, the Tesla Mannequin Y is within the prime spot, on the power of 4,681 deliveries in December, and first rate volumes since.
Its older sibling, the Tesla Mannequin 3, is in second place, a better rating than ordinary, which is smart on condition that the European provide is generally made in Shanghai. It’s going to thus lose entry to the French eco-bonus after March fifteenth, and has been pulling-forward deliveries forward of time. The Mannequin Y, made within the Berlin-Brandenburg manufacturing facility, stays eligible for the bonus after March.
In third is the Peugeot e-208, following on from its prime spot in the latest month-to-month rankings.
The MG4 and Dacia Spring are each making hay while the solar nonetheless shines, in 4th and fifth spots, and can possible fall again from April onwards, after dropping the bonus eligibility.
The remainder of the highest 12 are all acquainted faces, with no large actions in comparison with the interval 3 months earlier.
Outlook
France’s GDP development stayed above water all through 2023, with consecutive quarterly YoY scores of 0.9%, 1.2%, 0.6%, and 0.7% (newest information). This put France forward of many different European economies. Inflation cooled to 2.9% in February, from 3.1% in January, the bottom in over 2 years. Rates of interest stay flat at 4.5%. Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.1 factors in February, from 43.1 factors in January.
The months forward will see adjustments in BEV gross sales because the eco-bonus will get withdrawn for lots of the hottest fashions. We must wait to see what impact this has on the general quantity of the BEV market. Hopefully these producers who’re in a position to cut back their costs will accomplish that, as a way to hold their foot within the French market.
However, if their BEV fashions are anyway provide constrained (relative to demand throughout Europe), they’ll presumably favour allocating models to different European markets the place they will nonetheless entry incentives, and thus increased margins. We’ll get a fuller image of how the market has modified by the top of Q2.
What are your ideas on the French EV transition? Please soar in to the dialogue within the feedback part beneath, and share your perspective.
Have a tip for CleanTechnica? Wish to promote? Wish to recommend a visitor for our CleanTech Speak podcast? Contact us right here.
Newest CleanTechnica TV Video
Commercial
CleanTechnica makes use of affiliate hyperlinks. See our coverage right here.