China already has sufficient battery manufacturing capability to produce all international EV manufacturing, based on Bloomberg New Vitality Finance.
BNEF estimates to international battery-cell demand for each EVs and vitality storage got here in at round 950 gigawatt-hours in 2023—however manufacturing capability was greater than twice that, at round 2,600 gigawatt-hours.
China’s declared 2023 battery manufacturing alone was near the precise international demand, based on BNEF, which notes that the U.S., Canada, Europe, and India are actually incentivizing native battery manufacturing to compete with China—making the hole between provide and demand even higher.
Introduced battery manufacturing capability and demand in 2025 (through Bloomberg)
BNEF reported 7,900 gigawatt-hours of annual battery manufacturing capability introduced by the tip of 2025, however demand projections of simply 1,600 gigawatt-hours. And that assumes continued, regular international EV gross sales progress, in addition to progress in energy-storage use. Even half that complete introduced manufacturing capability could be sufficient to equip each new automobile offered globally subsequent yr with a 50-kwh battery pack, BNEF calculates.
Overambition in constructing EV battery factories, together with a worldwide lithium glut, after considerations of quick provide only a few years earlier, has induced battery costs to drop inside and out of doors China throughout passenger vehicles, industrial automobiles, and vitality storage.
CATL Shenxing battery
There was concern over some worth hikes within the prices of batteries in 2022. However because the Division of Vitality reminded us earlier final yr, battery prices have stored falling when you take into account inflation and take a look at it in fixed {dollars}.
A current Worldwide Council on Clear Transportation (ICCT) research urged that can assist them attain price parity with gasoline fashions inside a few years—prior to anticipated. And Goldman Sachs analysts count on a 40% drop in battery costs that can assist increase gross sales, with or with out subsidies.