Tesla has revealed its AI product/self-driving roadmap for the subsequent few months, but it surely raises extra questions than it solutions.
Tesla official AI Roadmap with self-driving software program releases
September 2024
v12.5.2 with ~3x improved miles between obligatory interventions
v12.5.2 on AI3 laptop (unified fashions for AI3 and AI4)
Truly Good Summon
Cybertruck Autopark
Eye-tracking with sun shades
Finish-to-Finish community on freeway
Cybertruck FSD
October 2024
Unpark, Park and Reverse in FSD
v13 with ~6x improved miles between obligatory interventions
Q1 2025
FSD in Europe (pending regulatory approval)
FSD in China (pending regulatory approval)
Electrek’s Take
The primary downside is enchancment towards what? Tesla has at all times refused to launch FSD intervention information so we wouldn’t even know if v12.5.2 can obtain a “3x enchancment in miles between obligatory intervention.”
As we beforehand reported, we do have some crowdsourced information, and Elon Musk acknowledged it positively, so we’d as nicely use that since Tesla refuses to launch official information.
For v12.4, the CEO mentioned that it is going to come with out steering wheel nag and will probably be in a position to drive “5 to 10x extra miles per intervention“.
v12.4 by no means made it to a large launch and v12.5 was alleged to go huge launch final month and it solely made it to about 5% of the FSD fleet the final time I checked.
Now, as a substitute of a 5 to 10x enhance on v12.4, which was a flop, he’s now speaking a couple of “~3x enchancment” this month with the discharge of v12.5.
Let’s examine the information thus far. Primarily based on the crowdsourced information, the typical of the v12.5.1 variations is 32 miles between disengagement and 128 miles between crucial disengagement.
This compares to 30 miles between disengagement and 189 miles between crucial disengagement for v12.3.6, which is the final FSD model that went into a large launch earlier this 12 months:
Remember that to realize Tesla’s promise of an unsupervised self-driving system, it might possible must be at between 50,000 and 100,000 miles between crucial disengagement, aka 390x over the present information.
Primarily based on Elon’s new timeline and in comparison with this information, we ought to be at round ~400 miles between “obligatory interventions ” by the tip of the month.
The time period “obligatory interventions” can also be problematic and raises questions.
The crowdsourced information can also be attempting to differentiate “crucial” disengagements and it is sensible since many disengagements don’t have anything to do with the extent of security in FSD. Some disengagement are because of consolation and frustration on the motive force’s half.
With v12.5.1, a variety of the disengagement must do with navigation errors and pace. The previous, Tesla will definitely want to repair. The latter is extra problematic because it truly affect the information.
Many FSD drivers complain that the most recent replace is drives extraordinarily sluggish. This could assist with the efficiency and scale back crucial disengagement, but it surely is not going to assist general disengagement as many drivers simply develop annoyed, myself included, and take management of the car to start out driving at extra affordable speeds.
So sure, as per my headline, this roadmap brings extra questions than it solutions primarily because of the truth that Tesla refuses to launch intervention information and but, it makes use of will increase within the metric to trace progress.
FTC: We use revenue incomes auto affiliate hyperlinks. Extra.