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Elon Musk tweeted a video yesterday of a Tesla Optimus robotic folding a shirt. My first impression was: Holy cow! That’s not really a easy activity! And Optimus is doing it so properly! However then …
Elon adopted that tweet with a clarification: “Vital be aware: Optimus can not but do that autonomously, however actually will be capable of do that absolutely autonomously and in an arbitrary surroundings (received’t require a set desk with field that has just one shirt).” So, yeah, it’s not folding garments autonomously as we initially thought. That will have been thoughts blowing.
Vital be aware: Optimus can not but do that autonomously, however actually will be capable of do that absolutely autonomously and in an arbitrary surroundings (received’t require a set desk with field that has just one shirt)
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 15, 2024
The Multi-Yr FSD Fail
Apparently, I first seen this tweet in a Tesla Motors Membership put up, and the particular person’s tackle it was not nice, as was the take of the primary responder, and the third responder. After all, boards are filled with complaints, however I assumed that every of them made some stable and fascinating factors, so let’s dive in.
The one who posted it supplied the next remark: “It’s 2024, now 6 years after FSD was promised by years finish.
“Most of us have paid between 5-15k for this, will not be allowed to switch this function that was by no means delivered to a brand new automotive (apart from one brief window should of us couldn’t make the most of), and nonetheless caught with a beta that we’re coaching for them as a substitute of it getting used what we paid severe amount of money for.
“And Musk is right here touting a robotic folding shirts, as a substitute of specializing in delivering product bought to many individuals 6 years in the past.
“Not cool…”
There are a number of points to unpack right here. For certain, there have been grand claims of true full self driving functionality for six years. In 2019, I assumed they’d gotten fairly severe. I purchased my Tesla Mannequin 3 SR+ then and paid $6,000 for the Full Self Driving (FSD) suite. On the time, Elon Musk was saying that FSD ought to be “function full” by the top of 2019. That didn’t imply it will be robotaxi prepared, simply that the automotive would be capable of drive from Level A to Level B with supervision. With speedy refinement from all of the miles Tesla would acquire, and ultimately regulatory approval, the vehicles would ultimately be able to working as robotaxis. Tesla had offered on the income potential for Tesla robotaxis competing with Ubers and the whole lot. The large uncertainty was purported to be regulatory approval. The software program was purported to be able to roll earlier than lengthy, however Elon was hopefully that the corporate would even go that stage in 2020.
It was a number of months after my automotive was delivered that Elon up to date everybody with the information that they needed to deeply rework their strategy and that was taking a number of months earlier than progress could be seen once more. (I’ve the hunch that Elon found this and began the method across the time I obtained my automotive, which was in August 2019, however who is aware of?) So, the 2019 goal was missed. However then, in July 2020, Elon was adamant that Tesla FSD could be getting near robotaxi functionality by the top of the yr, and would attain full Degree 5 autonomy quickly. “I’m extraordinarily assured that Degree 5 or primarily full autonomy will occur, and I believe will occur in a short time,” Musk stated. “I believe at Tesla, I really feel like we’re very near Degree 5 autonomy. I believe — I stay assured that we are going to have the essential performance for Degree 5 autonomy full this yr.”
Clearly, that point got here and went. In 2021, Musk was once more bullish on reaching one thing like robotaxi functionality, if not robotaxi functionality, by the top of the yr. After which in 2022. In 2023, he held his tongue somewhat extra, however nonetheless overvalued FSD progress.
For individuals like me who purchased FSD practically 5 years in the past, the goal usefulness for the price has not been achieved. Goals of working Tesla robotaxis have died. Hundreds of {dollars} have been spent and misplaced by many an FSD purchaser. Have been there disclaimers? Sure. Have been there guarantees? Not precisely, however shut — very shut. The actual fact is that targets have been massively missed and plenty of FSD patrons are bitter about this, much more so since we are able to’t even switch the function to a brand new Tesla! There was only one small window to take action. In any other case, when you spent hundreds of {dollars} on FSD and want a brand new automotive now and nonetheless dream of robotaxi-level (Degree 5 and even Degree 4 autonomy), Tesla received’t say, “Our unhealthy. We missed our goal. You’ll be able to have FSD in your subsequent Tesla professional bono.” Nope. As a substitute, you need to spent hundreds of {dollars} once more after which hope for a greater outcome. (It’s no shock the uptake charge is reportedly fairly low these days.)
A part of the gripe in that first remark is that Tesla is now utilizing the identical software program to coach robots, which can find yourself a profitable product constructed on the coaching and R&D prices supplied by FSD patrons, or is at the least a distraction from getting FSD to work.
Is Optimus Simply One other Overhyped Pet Undertaking?
The second commenter added, “And Elon clarified that Optimus isn’t autonomous on this video. So it’s principally one other staged video, similar to the 2016 FSD video. Elon is doing the identical factor with Optimus that he did with FSD: put out staged movies to hype one thing that probably received’t be actual for a few years to come back.”
The purpose is evident right here: the particular person, self-described as “common man who loves autonomous autos,” sees FSD as being massively overhyped by way of staged movies for years, and sees Tesla doing the identical with Optimus. At the very least it was clarified (considerably), however the authentic tweet made it appear to be the robotic was folding garments autonomously, however even the followup tweet signifies that the robotic will be capable of do that autonomously, sometime.
Now, as I just lately wrote, I’m really fairly bullish on Tesla turning Optimus into a large enterprise success. However, properly, see the part above — I purchased FSD and believed it will be helpful a lot sooner. Perhaps I’m not one of the best decide of these items. In any case, it appears noteworthy that folks have been very clearly disillusioned by Tesla’s failures on FSD and Elon Musk overhyping it for a number of years.
Bitterness About The {Hardware}
This third remark actually resonated with me as a result of it’s one I really feel strongly about and infrequently say if the subject arises. “FSDb man right here… the distinction is Tesla is ready to constantly regulate the {hardware} on Optimus. Think about what the Optimus that got here out on show a yr in the past would do at the moment if all they might do is enhance software program. it’s clear that AP2 and AP3 lack the {hardware} wanted. (simply had FSD shut down with the solar shining on the windshield, robotaxis are not possible if it could actually’t deal with the sunshine),” the commenter responded. Certainly — I can not think about FSD working with the {hardware} on my 2019 Mannequin 3, regardless that the automotive was purported to have all of the {hardware} it will even want for that. Autopilot and FSD functionality get shut off or received’t activate when the solar is blinding the cameras in sure methods, and the identical factor occurs when it rains too laborious. The cameras are just too blinded.
Somebody may argue that there are a number of cameras and visibility can also be lowered for human eyes. However my human eyes will not be being pelted with raindrops. They’re comfortably sitting contained in the consolation of a shielded and climate-controlled automotive. I don’t assume the {hardware} on my automotive can be enough for robotaxi use — ever. If that’s the case, was I swindled out of $6,000? Have been many others swindled out of $6,000, $8,000, $10,000, $15,000? Naturally, there’s loads of debate on this matter, however let’s remember that it’s individuals who had sufficient religion in Elon Musk’s phrase and Tesla’s technological progress to place their cash into this who really feel like guarantees weren’t saved and the way forward for Tesla FSD was massively overhyped.
What are your ideas on all of this? What’s your takeaway from the information of the clothes-folding Tesla robotic man?
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