As a part of his annual decarbonisation presentation, local weather and clean-tech researcher Nat Bullard has printed some fascinating charts on numerous tendencies in renewable vitality and electrical autos.
Posted on twitter this week, Bullard’s 200 web page slide deck is filled with properly offered charts protecting world warming, clear vitality development, deforestation and sustainable finance tendencies in addition to a collection of graphs protecting EV battery manufacturing, EV uptake and world EV public charging capability.
It is right here: my annual presentation on decarbonization.
There’s a lot happening, and I try and seize it in 200 slides. Ocean warmth content material, deforestation, fund efficiency, automobile effectivity, lighting know-how, GLP-1 agonists, and way more. https://t.co/DxlE3kbl13 pic.twitter.com/ONJbXB7twH
— Nat Bullard (@NatBullard) January 31, 2024
EV Batteries
Costs of lithium-ion batteries continued their long-term downward pattern dropping one other 13% year-on-year in 2023.
The true-world battery worth curve is scarily near the prediction made by Tony Seba in his 2014 e book Clear Disruption.
Li-ion #batteries from CATL and BYD dropping as little as $56/kWh. 🔋
“At the moment, VDA-sized #LFPcells are promoting for lower than RMB 0.5/Wh [USD $69.53/kWh]. Leapmotor’s vp Cao Li lately stated in an interview that the corporate’s procurement value for LFP cells has dropped… https://t.co/QasXsLvqtJ
— Tony Seba (@tonyseba) January 20, 2024
Bullard’s knowledge additionally exhibits that battery costs are converging as manufacturing scales and know-how matures. This primarily represents the commodification of batteries.
![Battery Price Convergence](https://b2232832.smushcdn.com/2232832/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/03.png?lossy=1&strip=0&webp=1)
On EV battery manufacturing, Bullard exhibits the dominance of the Chinese language producers with CATL and BYD collectively holding 52.5% of world market share.
![Global battery production](https://b2232832.smushcdn.com/2232832/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/04.png?lossy=1&strip=0&webp=1)
The charts additionally doc the change in battery chemistry with the rise of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. In 2019 LFP batteries made up simply 5% of manufacturing, in 2023 they make up round 40%. Current reviews counsel value of CATL’s LFP batteries might be reduce in half once more by mid-2024.
![Growth in Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries](https://b2232832.smushcdn.com/2232832/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/05.png?lossy=1&strip=0&webp=1)
Electrical Car Charging Networks
Bullard additionally checked out world charging networks with stunning outcomes. Three Chinese language public charging networks every supply extra energy than Tesla’s huge 50,000 Supercharger worldwide community.
![World's largest electric vehicle charging networks](https://b2232832.smushcdn.com/2232832/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/06.png?lossy=1&strip=0&webp=1)
Electrical Car Gross sales Progress
Utilizing knowledge from the Worldwide Vitality Company, Bullard exhibits that ICE (inside combustion engine) automobile gross sales have been in constant decline over the previous 7 years with the one development in world auto gross sales coming from EVs.
![ICE vehicle sales decline](https://b2232832.smushcdn.com/2232832/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/08.png?lossy=1&strip=0&webp=1)
On world EV uptake, Bullard says 18% of world passenger automobiles are actually electrical with China and Europe forward of the worldwide common. Whereas the US lags world common, it has seen important development in EVs in 2023 regardless of mainstream media reviews on the contrary.
![EV uptake bu region](https://b2232832.smushcdn.com/2232832/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/09.png?lossy=1&strip=0&webp=1)
![US EV sales](https://b2232832.smushcdn.com/2232832/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/17.png?lossy=1&strip=0&webp=1)
EV makers exhibiting huge returns in contrast with ICE autos
Not solely are EV gross sales rising whereas ICE automobile sale decline, EV makers are additionally producing the very best returns with Tesla and BYD outperforming all main ICE automobile producers by a major margin. One other report this week confirmed that investments in ICE automobile firms are actually extra carbon intense than investments in oil firms.
![EV maker return on equity versus ICE vehicle makers](https://b2232832.smushcdn.com/2232832/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/10.png?lossy=1&strip=0&webp=1)
China’s unbelievable development in EV manufacturing is being mirrored in world automobile exports with China passing Japan because the world’s largest passenger automobile exporter in 2023.
![Global vehicle exports](https://b2232832.smushcdn.com/2232832/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/12.png?lossy=1&strip=0&webp=1)
In one other fascinating graphic, Bullard exhibits capital funding breakdown for world EV and ICE producers. Whereas Europe nonetheless has important capital funding in ICE manufacturing, EV capital is dominated by Tesla and China.
![Powertrain regional splits](https://b2232832.smushcdn.com/2232832/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/15.png?lossy=1&strip=0&webp=1)
On EV pricing Bullard exhibits large variation between the world’s three largest automobile markets. China has the most important proportion of fashions within the sub $US30,000 class whereas reasonably priced fashions are nonetheless comparatively scarce in Europe and North America.
![EV model affordability breakdown](https://b2232832.smushcdn.com/2232832/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/16.png?lossy=1&strip=0&webp=1)
Authorities coverage not driving the shift
Bullard additionally gives helpful perception into the effectiveness of world authorities EV insurance policies exhibiting that though 60% of governments have insurance policies to ban or phase-out ICE autos, their ambition considerably lags automotive firm transition plans. Notice that though many main automakers have publicly acknowledged they’ve daring plans, most are failing on their commitments.
![EV policy lagging company strategy](https://b2232832.smushcdn.com/2232832/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/11.png?lossy=1&strip=0&webp=1)
These are just some samples of the 200 slides in Bullard’s 2023 presentation: Decarbonization: Shares and flows, abundance and shortage, web zero which is an especially helpful contribution to our understanding of the worldwide clear tech transition.
You’ll be able to see the total slide deck right here and comply with Nat Bullard on X.
![Daniel Bleakley Profile Picture](https://b2232832.smushcdn.com/2232832/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/1667258499442.jpeg?size=100x100&lossy=1&strip=0&webp=1)
Daniel Bleakley is a clear know-how researcher and advocate with a background in engineering and enterprise. He has a powerful curiosity in electrical autos, renewable vitality, manufacturing and public coverage.