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I simply reported that a number of automakers noticed their electrical automobile gross sales enhance considerably within the US within the first quarter of 2024 in comparison with the primary quarter of 2023. Why not roll Rivian into that? Effectively, Rivian is a special animal, and it appeared extra becoming to debate Rivian individually.
As you possibly can see on this first chart, Q1 2024 gross sales are properly above Q1 2023 gross sales, and Q1 2023 gross sales are Q1 2022 gross sales. (Q1 2022 was its first quarter of gross sales.) That appears like nice, huge development. And, as with the automakers I mentioned earlier, it solely appears truthful to have a look at year-over-year gross sales, and we shouldn’t put an excessive amount of weight on adjustments from This fall to Q1 since evaluating these quarters is usually a idiot’s errand. Nonetheless, wanting on the long-term quarterly gross sales chart, it’s not probably the most uplifting chart for a corporation that many wish to see “comply with Tesla’s path.”
As we will see, Rivian’s gross sales peak was within the third quarter of final 12 months, at 15,564 deliveries. I’m unsure if anybody actually expects Rivian to succeed in Tesla’s stage of gross sales — about 2 million automobiles a 12 months in the intervening time. Nonetheless, 10× development could be a pleasant goal, particularly with its mass-market, lower-cost R2 and R3 coming (see right here and right here). This final quarter’s gross sales have been 13,588. Multiplying that by ten could be 135,880 gross sales 1 / 4, and 543,520 gross sales a 12 months. That looks like a really cheap goal for Rivian, however it should rely closely on the R2 and R3.
Rivian does have a couple of huge elements going for it. For one, it just lately gained the #1 spot in auto model loyalty, based on analysis from Client Reviews. That’s a title Tesla as soon as held. Secondly, Rivian autos are having access to Tesla’s Supercharger community. Third, there are a ton of Tesla homeowners within the US. Lots of these homeowners will return to Tesla after they go to purchase a brand new automobile once more. Many, nonetheless, will wish to attempt one thing new, and Rivian could be a logical alternative for a superb chunk of them, contemplating it’s one other pure EV firm, contemplating it affords totally different automobile lessons folks could choose, and contemplating the truth that Rivian autos have gotten rave critiques and great buyer loyalty.
What are your ideas? What do you anticipate from Rivian in the remainder of 2024? Do you suppose Rivian might 10× its present gross sales finally? If Rivian can 10× its quarterly gross sales, when do you suppose it might obtain that?
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