There’s been loads of discuss lately concerning the development of Australia’s second-hand EV market.
In 2019 (simply pre-covid) I bear in mind checking Australia’s largest on-line automobile gross sales web site to seek out it had near 200,000 vehicles listed, of which barely 500 have been full electrical battery electrical automobiles (BEVs). Of the BEVs, most have been new as that was when vehicles just like the Kona electrical, authentic 28kWh Ioniq and Tesla mannequin 3 have been simply arriving … and there had been extraordinarily few BEVs offered right here to that time. The one ongoing fashions then have been the BMWi3, the Tesla fashions S and X and some stray Renault Zoes and Kangoo ZEs. (Each the Leaf and the iMiEV had lengthy since ended gross sales and the brand new Leaf was but to reach).
This was merely a mirrored image of the tiny proportion of the full new vehicles gross sales right here that BEVs represented to that time. Because of this, the few second-hand ones out there have been principally low driving vary Leafs, iMiEVs and early i3 BMWs – plus costly Teslas fashions S and X. This additionally mirrored that many BEV market choices out there abroad weren’t introduced right here as a consequence of unsupportive federal authorities coverage on the time.
As nature (and enterprise) abhors a vacuum – to fill that hole available in the market, companies just like the Good Automotive Firm, Ion DNA and Kilowatt Vehicles started importing that wider vary of second-hand BEVs from different nations (primarily Japan – these by the best way are also known as ‘JDM’ fashions – quick for ‘Japanese Home Market’). Whereas these is usually a good purchase, you do want to concentrate on the problems surrounding this a part of the market. (For extra info on what to search for in JDM and different non-public import automobiles, see my article right here).
Quick forwarding to at present’s Australian automobile market: a fast take a look at that very same main automobile gross sales web site reveals round 231,000 vehicles out there, with nearly 4,400 of those being BEVs. Trying somewhat deeper, 196,000 of the general whole are categorized as ‘used, demo and near-new’. (For simplicity, I’ll name these ‘second-hand’).
Of these, 2,450 are second-hand BEVs. That may put BEVs at a mere 1.25% of its second-hand listings. (As in comparison with 7.2% of the 2023 Australian new automobile market). Of that second-hand quantity, 28% are Teslas, reflecting its long-term presence in addition to its ongoing market dominance. (53% of Australia’s 2023 BEV gross sales have been Teslas). Desk 1 reveals what number of second-hand BEVs from annually can be found on that web site.
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Given a few of these are current 2023 demonstrators, at a guess a lot of the ones earlier to which can be true ‘second-hand’ while the 2023 fashions are a great way to successfully purchase a brand new automobile at a lowered worth.
The third column is the telling one: the variety of producers providing BEVs right here tapers off quickly beneath 2021. Given many non-public patrons get their vehicles on the 4 to 5 year-old mark – we are able to see that 2017, 2018 or 2019 BEVs are few in quantity, with not many manufacturers or fashions to select from.
So having put our market in perspective as to what and what number of we’ve now, what does our present second-hand market seem like?
First-up, it turns into apparent the market remains to be in its early levels as Tesla predominates for the reason that Mannequin S arrived in 2014. That nevertheless is quickly to vary with BYD prone to take that crown right here in 2024. So if you would like a Tesla, there may be loads of selection. For individuals who don’t, the market is simply simply getting began!
As for these relaxation: the most affordable on that web site is a 2011 UK spec Leaf at $9k. Nonetheless it has solely 53% battery vary left and would quickly want a battery alternative. (In contrast to later BEVs, early Leaf batteries haven’t held up all that effectively). Alternative price for an authentic spec Leaf battery for a 140-ish km vary is round $11k from a seller, or $16-17k for an aftermarket one supplying you with a bigger-than-original vary of 220-ish km.
At 9k, it’s comparatively low cost electrical motoring if you would like a 50 to 60 km vary automobile – which can swimsuit many individuals. It’s maybe not so enticing at an total price of $26k-ish with a alternative battery, even when it offers you 220 km. For that type of cash, you would get a 2017-2019 Renault Zoe with 280 km vary. (There are two Zoes at the moment listed for that type of worth). In truth there are 119 used BEVs from seven completely different producers listed below $30k.
Decrease that restrict to $25k, although, and there are solely 50 left from a mere three producers. Most of those, by the best way, are Nissan Leafs (primarily JDM imports) – plus the 2 beforehand talked about Renault Zoes, one Renault Kangoo ZE and three Mitsubishi iMiEVs.
Within the $25k to $40k vary, we discover 243 BEVs from 11 producers. MG at 79 and Nissan at 70 make up an enormous chunk of those although. Hyundai is subsequent at 40 (principally Ioniqs, however three 2019 Kona electrics can be found at $40k) plus GWM sneak in a couple of 2023 Ora demonstrators … and there are even two Teslas. (A 2014 Mannequin S and a 2019 Mannequin 3).
From $40 – $45k you get 163 extra BEVs to select from – together with 9 Mazda MX30s. Appears the shopping for public has forged it’s vote and this $65k plus new automobile from 2022 with (from new) barely 200 km of vary now lurks within the low $40k bracket of the second-hand market.
As I discussed again in June final 12 months, the BEV market right here is progressing down a lot the identical monitor as within the UK – albeit a few years behind. As such, we are able to use markets like that one to see what may occur right here within the close to to medium future.
So what can we count on from the second-hand BEV market within the subsequent one to 3 years? First-up, the numbers out there will improve exponentially in step with new automobile gross sales. Secondly, we’ll quickly see the primary of the automobiles from fleets as teams of BEVs turned over on the finish of their leases, leading to some volatility in used costs for these fashions. (As proven within the UK market lately).
This volatility will possible final till a batch arriving in the marketplace makes up solely a small proportion of the general variety of BEVs out there. Good for watchful patrons although, as there will likely be for some time some worth shopping for when massive fleets flip over a batch of 1 explicit mannequin. Thirdly, as new BEV costs proceed to fall, there will likely be downward strain on much less fascinating and/or older BEVs with shorter driving ranges.
Summing up:
The Australian second-hand BEV market is simply now starting to develop after years of lurking within the background. It’s nonetheless early days although, and as such costs will bounce round for a while to return, as a consequence of each provide and demand components.
On the provision aspect, when batches of BEVs are turned over by fleets, there could also be some short-term miserable of a selected mannequin’s worth. On the demand aspect, costs will stabilise, and even rise, as extra individuals begin to discover a second-hand BEV that matches their price range, growing demand on what remains to be a numbers constrained market section.
Between the 2, that volatility will stay till BEVs make up a major a part of each the brand new and second-hand markets. One other issue would be the improve in price range BEV fashions placing downward strain on used fashions. (As has been seen within the Tesla market on the quite a few events that Tesla have dropped their costs to drive new automobile gross sales).
After that, it’s possible that used BEV costs will merely comply with the identical tendencies because the ICE market has executed till now. Thoughts-you, as soon as that occurs it will likely be fascinating to see what the used ICE market does. Will it start a death-spiral when individuals merely don’t wish to purchase one anymore??
As a last level: if you’re available in the market for a second-hand EV (BEV, PHEV or HEV), be sure you nonetheless do all of your due-diligence checks. EVs are nonetheless vehicles and might have accident injury in addition to defective and worn elements – all the same old issues actually, identical to ICE ones. For tips about learn how to test a used EV, see article right here.
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Bryce Gaton is an skilled on electrical automobiles and contributor for The Pushed and Renew Financial system. He has been working within the EV sector since 2008 and is at the moment working as EV electrical security coach/supervisor for the College of Melbourne. He additionally supplies assist for the EV Transition to enterprise, authorities and the general public by means of his EV Transition consultancy EVchoice.