Statements have been circulating on-line, together with main information platforms, that battery electrical automobiles will vastly enhance the typical mass of the on-road fleet. This declare is used as an argument in opposition to these automobiles.
Even the Australian motoring organisation NRMA has posed the query: “EVs are heavy. Are they secure on our roads and carparks?” (It does say the reply is sure.)
The acknowledged purpose for such issues is mostly that electrical automobile batteries are heavy and enhance total automobile mass. A heavier automobile wants extra power to drive it and so will usually enhance emissions. A higher mass additionally reduces site visitors security and will have damaging impacts on parking areas and roads.
A essential evaluation launched yesterday took a better have a look at these claims to see in the event that they maintain true in Australia. It finds these claims don’t stack up in a rustic the place gross sales of fossil-fuelled (petrol, diesel, LPG) autos skew in direction of massive and heavy utes and SUVs.
When adjusted for precise high 10 autos bought and utilizing life like mass values, the typical mass of battery electrical and fossil-fuelled automobiles differs by simply 68 kilograms. That distinction isn’t vital, particularly as a result of electrical automobiles are way more energy-efficient.
EVs slash power demand!
Say a rustic burned equal of 1,000 TWh of gasoline for street transport.
Do you want 1,000 TWh of electrical energy to interchange gasoline automobiles with electrical ones? Nope!
You would possibly want as little as 224 TWh. 4 to 5 instances much less. https://t.co/zfCnvHe06b pic.twitter.com/l2OQG7Ggrp
— John Raymond Hanger (@johnrhanger) February 8, 2024
Oversimplifying a fancy subject
The claims being made usually oversimplify a fancy actuality. They inform solely a part of the story, which could be deceptive.
As an illustration, inner combustion engine automobiles have constantly elevated in mass over time. Generally known as automobile weight problems, this truth is commonly unfairly ignored in comparisons.
Equally, these statements fake to understand how complicated client behaviour will reply to future availability of battery electrical automobiles and their fast-changing and enhancing options. Typically, the outcomes of abroad research can’t be straight utilized to completely different Australian situations.
The place did the automobiles go?Imagine it or not each second automobile purchased in Australia is a SUV.In September, SUVs accounted for 58% of latest automobile gross sales. Passenger automobiles accounted for simply 17%.This implies SUVs outsell passenger automobiles three to at least one pic.twitter.com/vFqHvMNWat
— Michael Yardney (@michaelyardney) November 3, 2023
4 factors of rivalry
Our report identifies and unpacks 4 details of rivalry.
First, there are alternative ways to outline and evaluate the mass of battery electrical and combustion engine automobiles. In follow, the selection is relatively arbitrary. Relying on the tactic, the comparability could also be neither enough nor correct.
Typically the comparability is made between comparable or equally sized battery electrical and combustion engine automobiles. Or electrical automobiles could be in contrast solely to an equal non-electric model of fashions such because the VW Golf. One other variation is to easily evaluate the typical mass of a giant vary of automobiles at present on sale, with out contemplating the impression of gross sales volumes.
Second, a standard argument is that batteries are heavy, so electrical automobiles are heavier than fossil-fuelled automobiles. However that is simplistic – it’s not solely the battery that issues.
Offsetting the additional battery mass, different components of the electrical automobile corresponding to their motors are smaller and lighter. They will reduce its mass by as much as 50%.
And precise additional battery mass itself relies on a variety of things. Battery chemistry, battery dimension and power storage capability (which determines how usually a automobile wants recharging) all have an effect on the mass. Certainly, battery mass varies between 100 and 900 kilograms for automobiles.
Third, automobile weight problems has vastly and constantly elevated fossil-fuelled automobile mass. Until we embrace this rise in automobile weight problems, the comparability with battery electrical automobiles tells solely half the story.
Lastly, it’s difficult to precisely predict the mass impacts of electrical automobiles. A typical assumption is that future automobile patrons’ behaviour doesn’t change when switching to battery electrical automobiles. This assumption appears unlikely and once more oversimplifies the comparability.
As an illustration, market availability, advertising and marketing focus, buy worth and efficiency traits will largely information patrons’ choices. These issues are all extremely dynamic. They’re altering considerably and quick.
So how do they evaluate in Australia?
A correct comparability wants, at the very least, to incorporate life like automobile mass and gross sales knowledge. Our research compares the variations in automobile mass between the highest ten best-selling automobiles for each battery electrical and fossil-fuelled autos in Australia in 2022, as proven under.
At present bought high 10 fashions of battery electrical automobiles cluster extra on the heavy finish, however the most well-liked automobiles are comparatively mild. The highest 10 fashions of fossil-fuelled automobiles have a bigger unfold in mass. But, in the case of gross sales, most are comparatively heavy SUVs or utes.
When ranked by reputation and in contrast, battery electrical automobiles aren’t at all times heavier. They are often virtually 300kg (12%) lighter to virtually 800kg (55%) heavier than the corresponding fossil-fuelled automobile. Importantly, the general distinction within the common mass of the 2 classes when adjusted for gross sales is simply 68kg (about 3% of complete automobile mass).
This small distinction is insignificant when it comes to power and emission impacts. A extra essential issue right here is the superior power effectivity of battery electrical autos.
How will they evaluate in future?
Clearly, future gross sales profiles might differ from present gross sales profiles. The present profile could also be largely outlined by a sure kind of buyer (corresponding to a high-income early adopter). They won’t be typical of mainstream customers in coming years.
Patrons’ future behaviour is unsure and exhausting to foretell. It might rely on the effectiveness of (new) coverage measures corresponding to Australia’s New Car Effectivity Normal, the precise autos provided on the market, advertising and marketing efforts by automobile suppliers and probably additionally cultural adjustments.
Any shifts in purchaser behaviour may vastly affect the automobile fleet’s common mass. They might proceed the present development in direction of bigger and heavier autos, or shift to smaller and lighter autos.
However that is the purpose: the impacts of electrification of passenger autos on common mass are extremely unsure. Statements on the matter are sometimes speculative and could be unfairly biased by the strategies used.
In markets the place heavy petrol and diesel autos dominate automobile gross sales, corresponding to Australia and New Zealand, present proof suggests elevated electrical automobile gross sales are unlikely to vastly enhance common automobile mass. In truth, common mass may really go down as cheaper and lighter electrical automobiles go on sale right here.
Car mass stays essential
Importantly, the report isn’t downplaying the significance of auto mass for transport emission abatement.
In earlier analysis it was estimated that solely a passenger automobile fleet dominated by small and light-weight battery electrical autos might get Australia near attaining the net-zero emissions goal in 2050.
To satisfy the goal, it’s thus essential to reverse the development of accelerating automobile weight problems, for all automobiles. However automobile mass shouldn’t be used as an argument in opposition to electrification.
Robin Smit, Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Know-how Sydney
This text is republished from The Dialog beneath a Inventive Commons license. Learn the unique article.
